The United States Oil Fund (NYSEArca: USO), which tracks West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures, and the United States Brent Oil Fund (NYSEArca: BNO), which tracks Brent crude oil futures, are rebounding nicely this week after sliding earlier this month. With spring approaching, commodities investors may want to give oil exchange traded products another look.
However, expanding U.S. stockpiles could depress further gains in the crude oil market. Inventories in U.S. tanks and terminals likely increased by 3 million barrels last week, potentially marking the fourth straight week of gains and the longest expansion since the first quarter of 2017, Bloomberg reports.
“However, U.S. tight oil production is still only 5% of the global oil supply. It is highly unlikely that U.S. oil production will be able to ever meet U.S. demand (currently over 17,000,000 barrels per day), much less supply the rest of the world,” reports ETF Daily News.
The Energy Information Administration calculates that daily output, which was the highest since 1972 last year, could hit a new record of 10.6 million barrels this year, the Wall Street Journal reports. The EIA even predicts the U.S. will become a net exporter by 2029, and if all other energy is included, in just four years.
Current OPEC compliance with production cut plans remains above their historical average, and it usually takes between two to three quarters for inventories to normalize after the cuts. While demand has yet to catch up to elevated supplies, rebounding economies in Europe and steady economic growth in the U.S. could prompt more upside for oil this year.
“The truth is that Non-OPEC / Non-U.S. oil accounts for over 45% of this world’s crude oil supply and it is now at risk of going on steady decline because so little capital has been deployed in these ‘Other Areas. With demand for oil now increasing by 1.5 to 2.0 million barrels per day year-after-year, we are going to need lots of new supply outside of the shales,” according to ETF Daily News.
In recent months, production declined in OPEC members Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela, but output topped a post-Soviet era record in Russia last year. Russia is expected to continue pumping to take advantage of rebounding prices.
“In 2017, demand for oil increased by 2.3 million barrels per day from the first to the second quarter. Last year, U.S. crude oil inventories were at the top of the five year range. Today, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the middle of the five year range,” reports ETF Daily News.
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