As mentioned above, inflation has increased in recent months. The fed’s preferred measure, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index is quite close to the 2% the fed sees as its target. As long as the economy continues to show strength, my expectation is that the fed will continue to raise rates to the neutral rate of about 3%, though given the international uncertainty, I also expect their stately pace of a quarter point each calendar quarter will continue.
As always, we at Astor will be monitoring the economy closely to inform our investment decisions. To see more of our weekly collection of charts, visit www.astorim.com/charts or download the new Astor Economic Research App from the App Store or Google Play.
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The Astor Economic Index® is a proprietary index created by Astor Investment Management LLC. It represents an aggregation of various economic data points: including output and employment indicators. The Astor Economic Index® is designed to track the varying levels of growth within the U.S. economy by analyzing current trends against historical data. The Astor Economic Index® is not an investable product. When investing, there are multiple factors to consider. The Astor Economic Index® should not be used as the sole determining factor for your investment decisions. The Index is based on retroactive data points and may be subject to hindsight bias. There is no guarantee the Index will produce the same results in the future. The Astor Economic Index® is a tool created and used by Astor. All conclusions are those of Astor and are subject to change. 2018-193