Model Capital Management LLC
Wellesley, MA 02482
Articles by Model Capital Management LLC
US Economic Performance Falters In Q3
By Roman Chuyan, CFA Economic Trouble US economic performance falters in Q3 Inflation remained elevated last month and shows no…
Roman Chuyan, CFAPresident, Chief Investment Officer
Roman founded the firm in 2012 to provide investment advice focusing on active asset allocation, as a way of improving portfolio risk-return compared to a passive index. The firm’s strategy is powered by research and the unique equity forecasting model that Roman developed over the previous decade.
Prior to founding Model Capital, Roman ran a consulting firm Performance Analytics Inc., which worked primarily with large pension firms to help them build their global tactical asset allocation programs. In prior years, Roman worked at buy-side investment firms JH Investments (2008-2010), CypressTree (2006-2008), and John Hancock Life Insurance Company (1998-2006). He focused on asset allocation, fixed income, credit markets, and derivatives; and developed risk management and valuation models.
Roman holds a M.Sc. degree in Finance from Bentley University in Waltham, MA. He is a CFA charter holder. Roman has several papers on investment risk and tactical management published in financial journals.
Frank Donovan,Vice President, Business Development
Frank directs business development activities for the firm, identifying RIA and other investment managers interested in utilizing Model Capital’s fundamental, forward-looking approach to asset management.
Frank brings to the firm over twenty years of sales management experience, with a record of delivering sustained customer and revenue growth at Wall Street Prep, Varden Technologies, Exivity, DYS Analytics, NewsEdge, and Digital Equipment Corp.
Frank received his B.S. in Economics from The Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania.
Alexander Melnikov, Ph.D.Research Consultant
Dr. Alexander Melnikov plays a key role in the firm’s quantitative research and model development. He brings to the firm over 30 years of academic and applied research experience, and is also a Professor in Mathematical Finance at the University of Alberta.
In addition to his various academic engagements, Alexander previously held senior positions in business: Chief Scientist at Risk Invest Deutschland AG (Frankfurt), and Director at a consulting company Center of Actuarial and Financial Studies, where he was responsible for application of cutting-edge methods of stochastic analysis and statistics in investment management, insurance and risk management.
Alexander is an author of five books and 100 papers, and is a frequent speaker at conferences all over the world.
More Articles
Bubble Mentality – What Might Trigger A Turn In The Market?
By Roman Chuyan, CFA I show (again) that the stock market valuation is at its highest in at least 150…
Will Inflation Rise? And What It Means for Stocks and Bonds
By Roman Chuyan, CFA In this article, I review the recent rise in yields and in inflation expectations, and what…
How To Spot A Bubble – Reckless Speculation is a Telltale Sign
By Roman Chuyan, CFA Our Equity Model’s 6-month forecast for the S&P 500 turned significantly negative on economic factors and…
What To Expect in the New Decade?
By Roman Chuyan, CFA A View on Stocks and Commodities In this year-end note, I offer a longer-term perspective on US…
Why We Sold Stocks
By Roman Chuyan, CFA Elevated short-term risk on investor exuberance We have captured most of the market upside in November.…
A Momentum Market: How Long Will It Last?
By Roman Chuyan, CFA, President, CIO, Model Capital Management LLC Our Equity Model’s forecast for the S&P 500 remains positive…
Like A Rocket Ship
Why we got back in the market Note: this report was sent to our clients on 11/2/2020. Stocks took off…
A Pre-Election Analysis, Part 2
Still defensive, for now Our Equity Model’s 6-month outlook for the S&P 500 has improved from Negative to Neutral. However,…
It Might Get Interesting
A Pre-Election Update Market volatility increased in September and might continue into the election. Our equity model’s 6m forecast for…
A Case For Gold: Even More Attractive with Higher Inflation
By Roman Chuyan, CFA The Fed wants higher inflation, which will lead to even more-negative real interest rates. Bonds are…
The Fed Wants Inflation: Implications for Bonds, Stocks, and Gold
By Roman Chuyan, CFA The Fed has shifted to an average 2% inflation target, which has already increased inflation expectations…
Dangerously Overconfident: We’re In One of the Most Expensive Markets of all Time
By Roman Chuyan, CFA It’s one of the most expensive markets of all time, while the economy is one of the…
Q2 Earnings To Drop By 44%
By Roman Chuyan, CFA, Model Capital Management A recession began in January. An 8% downturn is expected, double the size…
Battle: Robinhood vs. Professionals
May payrolls surprised on the upside, but the economy has a long way to recover. Our 6m forecast for the…
Fair Warning – Another Leg Down Is Likely
By Roman Chuyan, CFA This recession is likely the most severe in 74 years. GDP is expected to contract 25-30%…
Q1 Earnings Overview – Final
By Roman Chuyan, CFA Operating earnings for the first quarter dropped by 14% This is the biggest decline in the…
Q1 2020 Earnings Overview
By Roman Chuyan, CFA Operating earnings for the first quarter are expected to decline by 16% This is the biggest decline…
The Absurdity of This Rebound
By Roman Chuyan, CFA We are in a severe recession – probably worse than in 2008 and the deepest since…
The “Immense” Recession?
By Roman Chuyan, CFA Economic numbers for March are the worst in decades. A 10% peak-to-trough GDP contraction is expected…
Uncharted Territory (Still Defensive)
By Roman Chuyan, CFA, Model Capital Management Our fundamentals-based equity model continues with its negative outlook for the S&P 500.…
Bear-Market Bond Adjustment
By Roman Chuyan, CFA, Model Capital Management Economists are competing for the gloomiest projection, with some expecting a -25% GDP in…
This Is a Bear Market
By Roman Chuyan, CFA, Model Capital Management Our fundamentals-based process has helped protect against the entire downturn so far. Stocks are…
The Pin That Pricks The Bubble?
Editor’s Note: Model Capital Management originally published this article and sent to their clients on Feb. 14, 2020. By Roman…
The Concern Phase – How We Protect Against This Downturn
By Roman Chuyan, CFA Our fundamentals-based process helped protect against the entire market correction so far. Our equity model’s outlook…
Welcome To the 2020’s
By Roman Chuyan, CFA, Model Capital Management Our equity model’s 6m forecast for the S&P 500 declines slightly on higher…