So where are we today? Truthfully, no one knows if this is the next Bear or not.  But to further illustrate what may happen, let’s overlay the last two Bear markets with the current market action:

Days in Bear Market

Source: Bloomberg, Beaumont Capital Management (BCM). 2000-2002 Bear market dates between 3/24/2000-10/9/2002. 2007-2009 Bear market dates between 10/9/2007 and 3/9/2009.

Of course, every Bear is slightly different but the first 10% drawdowns look mighty similar. And the circles around the capitulation selling are quite obvious.

If this current correction is going to continue, then where are we on the Bear market continuum? We have already lost the first quarter making up the ordinary pullback. It is the beginning of the second quarter. What are you going to do? Freeze or take action? Put another way, it is January 3rd, 2008. If you could go back in time, what would you have done differently?

If you are still fighting indecision, perhaps BCM can help. What if this is the mother of all head fakes? To BCM, it is simple: Follow a rules-based system that is designed to remove emotion. We provide growth systems designed to prevent large, devastating losses. Our systems ebb and flow as the market action unfolds, but without fear and greed clouding decisions, the path suddenly becomes crystal clear.

This article was contributed by Dave Haviland, Portfolio Manager at Beaumont Capital Management, a participant in the ETF Strategist Channel.

For more insights like these, visit BCM’s blog at


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