What we never understood is the concept that QE reversal would not slow the economy in the same way that QE was able to help grow it. We have read estimates showing that $600 billion of annual bond sales is equivalent to a 75 bps rate hike. Whether this number is accurate is not as important as the concept…you recognized and admitted that QE reversal was a headwind to the economy, and your recent policy stance that your “most favored plan is to stop the portfolio run-off” by the end of 2019 makes a lot of sense. The FED’s actions went from creating price instability to price stability almost overnight. Last week’s minutes suggested that you might start the treasury purchases again in 2020. While this came as a surprise, until we learn more, I’ll reserve comment.

Mr. Chairman, members of the FOMC, we thank you. Yours is a thankless and endless job that effects all Americans, and the world’s investors, alike. Please know we appreciate the flexibility, timeliness and appropriateness of your actions. While it is without precedent, it is most welcome.

Sincerely,

David M. Haviland 

Portfolio Manager and Managing Partner

Beaumont Capital Management (BCM)

This article was contributed by Dave Haviland, Portfolio Manager at Beaumont Capital Management, a participant in the ETF Strategist Channel.

For more insights like these, visit BCM’s blog at blog.investbcm.com

Disclosures:

Copyright © 2019 Beaumont Financial Partners, LLC. All rights reserved. All materials appearing in this commentary are protected by copyright as a collective work or compilation under U.S. copyright laws and are the property of Beaumont Capital Management. You may not copy, reproduce, publish, use, create derivative works, transmit, sell or in any way exploit any content, in whole or in part, in this commentary without express permission from Beaumont Capital Management.

This material is for informational purposes only. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or financial instrument, nor should it be construed as financial or investment advice. The material may contain forward or backward-looking statements regarding intent, or beliefs regarding current or past expectations.
Although it is believed to be accurate, no representation or warranty is made as to its accuracy or completeness. The views and opinions expressed throughout this presentation are those of our Portfolio Manager as of February 2019. The opinions and outlooks may change over time with changing market conditions or other relevant variables.