Our base case is that the Fed will get it right and not cause the next recession in the near-term. Still, we will be watching our dashboard of indicators closely for any signal that the Fed’s policies may be having adverse effects on global markets.
The Cash Indicator (CI) has moved up slightly, but is still a long way from signaling significant equity market risk ahead. This confirms our fundamental view that any equity market selloff will likely be limited and offers a buying opportunity.
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S&P 500 Index – This Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks. The Index is designed to measure performance of a broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.