The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed over 300 points on Friday amid global growth concerns as China and Europe reported weaker-than-expected economic data.
U.S. capital markets have been roiled by volatility as any sliver of financial news, positive or negative, have set the major indexes in motion.
“At this point, a lot of investors are very cautious heading into 2019,” said Yousef Abbasi, director of U.S. institutional equities at INTL FCStone. “There’s a lot of frustration among investors that have been whipsawed by this volatility.”
Capital markets in China were flush with red as the country reported industrial output and retail sales growth numbers for November fell short of expectations–a sign that China’s economy is losing its forward momentum. The weaker data also reflects the ramifications of the ongoing trade war with the United States, which could play heavily in trade discussions moving forward as China may be forced to give up more concessions to make a deal.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping agreed to cease fire on their tariff-for-tariff battle. The truce reached at the G-20 Summit didn’t quell investor fears as markets in the U.S. and China have been fretting on the notion that a trade deal can only materialize after lengthy discussions between the two economic superpowers–contentious topics like forced technology transfer and intellectual property could derail negotiations.
Trump and Jinping met at the G-20 Summit in Buenos Aires, putting global markets on pause as the two economic superpowers met to hopefully ameliorate their trade differences. As part of the agreement, both nations agreed to withhold imposing further tariffs on each other for 90 days while they work out a firm, ironclad deal.
The U.S. agreed to keep the current 10% tariffs on over $200 billion worth of Chinese goods while an agreement is negotiated, but will increase to 25% if no agreement is reached prior to the 90-day deadline.
European markets followed China into the red after the IHS Markit Flash Eurozone PMI index fell to 51.7 during the month of December, which represents its lowest level in four years.
“Policy mistakes remain the biggest threats to global growth in 2019 and beyond,” said IHS Markit Chief Economist Nariman Behravesh. “Simmering trade conflicts are dangerous, not because they have done damage so far–they haven’t–but because they could easily escalate. At the same time, the sell-off in equity and commodity markets, on top of the gradual removal of stimuli by some central banks, means that financial conditions worldwide are tightening. The good news is that the probability of a single policy event seriously hurting global growth in 2019 is still relatively low.”
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