By Lenore Elle Hawkins via Iris.xyz
There are times when writing from the macro perspective can be challenging, particularly when macro takes a backseat as it is prone to do during parts of the business cycle. This year macro is back with a bang.
JPMorgan recently assessed the chance of a recession in 2019 has risen to 35% from just 16% in March based on macro data alone. The markets realize that the underlying dynamics have changed and are grappling with what to expect next:
- As we mentioned last time, in 2017 only 1 of the 70 asset classes Deutsche Bank tracks closed in negative territory despite many being inversely correlated – clearly a market behaving oddly. As of mid-November, 90% were in the red for 2018 as the overexuberance of 2017 is forced to pay the piper.
- In 2017 44 of the 47 country stocks in the global MSCI index closed up for the year. As of the December 11th closing, only 3 are in the green.
- The suppressed volatility in 2017 has led to hyper in 2018 as the S&P 500 has lost 3% or more in three market sessions this year with not one gain of 3% or more, a dynamic which last happened in 1936. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has experienced four days of 3%+ losses and no daily gains of that magnitude, a dynamic which last happened in 1897. (Hat tip to David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff)
Market dynamics are reflecting the increase in macro/political volatility across much of the world, but the headlines have yet to catch up with the primary drivers underlying the deep changes. In our previous Context & Perspective piece, I discussed how we are seeing a profound decline in the level of liquidity at a time when debt levels are back to record highs. This week is a highlight reel of warning signs in the context those record levels of debt.
- US employment
- US Treasury balance sheet and yield curve inversion
- Oval Office produces day time TV level drama
- US China Trade War
- UK Brexit Drama Spikes
- Paris on Fire
- Italy sees an opportunity
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