Like most U.S. equities and their corresponding sectors, the October sell-offs set back equities amid the decade-long bull run that reached historic highs during the summer. Despite a post-midterm election rally, volatility returned as equities resumed their downward trajectory from October, but if there’s one thing to bet on–it’s a Black Friday boost for the retail sector.

As such, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to keep an eye on are the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (NYSEArca: XRT), Amplify Online Retail ETF (NadaqGM: IBUY) and VanEck Vectors Retail ETF (NYSEArca: RTH). Today, those names took a hit amid a 395-point loss in the Dow Jones Industrial Average–XRT down 2.04%, IBUY down 4.16% and RTH down 2.12%–but a boost in the form of holiday shoppers is looming and its got history on its side.

According to analytics company Kensho, the consumer discretionary sector within the companies listed in the S&P 500 returned an average of 1% and traded in the green 71% of the time during the week of Thanksgiving for the last 30 years.

As far as individual names go, top performers during the week of Thanksgiving include Amazon, Best Buy, Dollar Tree, Nordstrom, and Michael Kors.

Amid October’s market volatility, the latest retail sales data in October showed a 0.8% rise as purchases of motor vehicles and building materials led the way after the less-than-stellar September data. September saw a mild rise in retail sales, edging higher by 0.1%, but below the 0.6% rise forecasted by a Reuters poll of economists

Related: Prudential Expands on Actively Managed ETF Line Up

Tracking Performance of Brick-and-Mortar Retail

The spate of bankruptcies from brick-and-mortar retails stores could be spooking investors as companies like Sears Holdings filed for bankruptcy protection last month after 125 years in business. The retail store is expected to shutter 142 stores by the end of the year with liquidation sales expected to begin shortly.

One way for investors to track the performance of brick-and-mortar stores for comparison purposes to their online counterparts is the Solactive-ProShares Brick and Mortar Retail Store Index. The index itself is composed of listed companies traded on U.S. stock exchanges that meet the following criteria:

  • A market capitalization of more than $500 million as of the selection date and Average Daily Traded Value of more than $1 million in the 6-month period prior to the selection date;
  • 50% of revenues for the previous fiscal year from retail operations
  • More than 75% of revenues from retail operations for the previous fiscal year from in-store sales.

“Year-to-date Brick and Mortar retailers have narrowly underperformed, returning 7.2% to 10.4% for Online Retail, though indicators like corporate earnings and retail sales figures continue to show the falling share of physical stores as more consumer shift their shopping online,” ProShares noted in an email.

Even with the latest closures occurring in the age-old brick-and-mortar retail businesses, these same companies are expanding their internet presence to enhance their online retail experience.

“The traditional division between online and in-store retailing continues to shift and blur,” Marshal Cohen, NPD Group’s chief industry advisor, said in a statement. “Traditional store retailers are upping their online games these days, while they are also finding ways to drive traffic to stores with improved efficiency, more entertaining shopping experiences and better value. Online retailers are also finding ways to blur the retail divide in their own ways, offering lower prices and shipping options that get products to consumers faster than ever.”

For more information on the consumer sector, visit our consumer discretionary category.

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