Bitcoin’s quadrennial halving is scheduled for Friday, April 19 and the event, which some market observers describe as a pre-programmed supply limiter, could push prices of the largest digital currency higher. Conversely, it’s also argued that the halving is priced into bitcoin. With that understanding, the recent entry of spot ETFs into the market is equally as important as the halving.
Still, some crypto experts think that the halving will serve the effect of limiting and thus boosting bitcoin prices. Noelle Acheson, author of the “Crypto is Macro Now” newsletter, said, though she advised that some turbulent weeks lie ahead for bitcoin before the digital currency potentially ascends to $450,000 over the next 12 months.
Should that forecast prove accurate, it implies an epic rally. That scale of rally would require a more than sevenfold increase from where bitcoin traded as of late Monday. Bitcoin bulls would be delighted, but as was seen on Monday, geopolitical issues can act as headwinds to crypto prices.
History Is Meaningful, But Not a Guarantee
Experienced investors know that in financial markets, history may not repeat. However, it often comes close, and that is part of the post-halving thesis applicable to bitcoin.
“Citing Bloomberg data, Acheson noted that Bitcoin’s price surged 8,691% one year after the 2012 halving, 295% after the 2016 event, and 559% after the 2020 event,” reported Sebastian Sinclair for DL News. “If those patterns repeat, then Bitcoin could reach $450,000 a year from now, or $270,000 if this cycle turns out to be more like 2016, Acheson said in an April 13 newsletter.”
Even a jump to $270,000 implies bitcoin would more than quadruple from current levels. In the span of 12 months, that’s a lot of work to accomplish for any asset with a market capitalization of north of $1.2 trillion. In the essence of prudence, it may for pay for investors to not bank on such rapid appreciation. Acheson acknowledged the upcoming halving could differ from its three predecessors.
“Does that mean the time to the next all-time high will be much shorter than in previous cycles?” Acheson wrote. “Could it imply a steeper correction after the event? There’s no way to tell, especially with so many other market drivers at work.”
Spot bitcoin ETFs available to U.S. advisors and investors include the VanEck Bitcoin ETF Trust (HODL), Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF (BTCO), WisdomTree Bitcoin Fund (BTCW), Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB), Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC), iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), and the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB).
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