However, Rabobank argued that the robust coffee market is “nearly the peak” of an output deficit, and only a “very good” Vietnamese crop could bridge the deficit.
“The robust market will be tight” until supplies from this harvest hit export markets in December, Rabobank said.
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The bank projected that world production for robusta will fall into a deficit in 2017 to 2018 at 2.9 million bags, or 200,000 bags smaller than previously expected, but following on from a deficit fro last season pushed higher to 3.8 million bags, according to Agrimoney.
Meanwhile, robust futures are trading in “backwardation” where nearby contracts trade higher than later-dated contracts, reflecting rising demand for supplies. Consequently, pricing could be volatile if the Vietnamese crop is delayed due to rains, with backwardation steepening.
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