By Joseph Hosler via Iris.xyz
After a very dismal December (one of the worst market declines in history) and a powerful rebound in January (one of the best months in history), February has been relatively calm. But before you get giddy, we are not convinced the storm has completely passed. As we wrote in our 2019 Outlook, this will be a time for patience. As the drawdown chart below shows, we have not even recovered from our last de-risking event in late November.
We wrote in a recent newsletter (Binary Options, Non-Binary Outcomes) that the dire headlines concerning Brexit, U.S.-China trade disputes, and U.S. government shutdown should not be taken as the end of the world. We now caution that the hope of trade agreements, politicians reaching deals, etc. will likely not lead to ebullient outcomes either. Our risk measures continue to suggest a greater period of uncertainty, which means, to us, a period of continued volatility.
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