As the U.S. and China continue talks, investors may look to the pommeled semiconductor-sector ETFs if the negotiations pull through.
BlackRock Chairman and CEO Larry Fink told CNBC on Wednesday there would be “a surge in investment sentiment” if both sides call off the trade war. A concrete resolution to trade tariffs between the world’s two biggest economies could trigger a relief rally in the stock market that has been pulled lower on the uncertainty surrounding Washington’s trade policy.
The U.S. and China previously reached a 90-day cease fire in the trade war last month to halt new levies as they come back to the negotiating table. However, there has been mixed news on the peace talks, with Sen. Chuck Grassley saying US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer saw no progress on key issues, while President Trump tweeted about “big progress” with China.
“Any deal would likely see a relief rally as we believe markets have meaningfully priced in risks of trade tensions escalating,” Ben Laidler, HSBC’s global equity strategist in a note, adding that tariff-sensitive stocks have underperformed significantly and their valuations are getting cheap.
Specifically, HSBC ran a screen for U.S. stocks with revenue exposure to China of more than 20%, underperformed during the three-month market pullback on trade deal concerns and exhibited cheap valuation on a forward price-earnings basis. The bank found that among the U.S. companies that fall under these three criteria, Skyworks Solutions (NasdaqGS: SWKS) had a 83% China revenue exposure and 9.8 12-month forward P/E; Broadcom (NasdaqGS: AVGO) had 54% exposure and a 10.7 P/E; Micron (NasdaqGS: MU) had 51% exposure and 4.7 P/E; Marvell Technology (NasdaqGS: MRVL) had 50% exposure and a 11.9 P/E; and Intel (NasdaqGS: INTC) had a 24% exposure and 10.6 P/E.
If the trade negotiations pull through, these companies could be among the best beneficiaries. ETF Investors can also gain exposure to these companies through targeted semiconductor-related ETFs, such as First Trust Nasdaq Semiconductor ETF (FTXL), SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (NYSEArca: XSD), iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (NasdaqGM: SOXX) and VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (NYSEArca: SMH).
SWKS makes up 4.0% of FTXL and 3.2% of XSD. AVGO makes up 9.3% of SOXX and 6.0% of SMH. MU accounts for 4.1% of SMH, 3.6% of SOXX and 3.0% of XSD. MRVL makes up 3.4% of XSD, 2.6% of FTXL, 2.2% of SOXX and 1.9% of SMH. Lastly, INTC makes up 13.7% of SMH, 8.3% of FTXL and 8.2% of SOXX.
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