“The answer is clearly that the Fed will have to react to some extent should wages pressure inflation rates higher, but we think today more of those wages (average hourly earnings increased 2.8% year-over-year) are likely to shift into savings than historically would have been the case in a more traditional goods-oriented economy. For that reason, and due to secular inflationary headwinds (technology and demographics), decelerating global growth, and diminished global liquidity, we think the Fed reaction function will be more subdued than many in the market anticipate.”
Today’s data came as unemployment claims last week fell to a 49-year low, pointing to sustained strength in the labor market. Claims for unemployment benefits fell to 207,000, besting the forecasted 213,000 by a Reuters poll of economists.
Additionally, private payrolls grew stronger than expected in September with 230,000 positions added. The private payrolls total easily bested the 168,000 jobs added in August–more than the 185,000 expected by a survey of economists and the highest number of payrolls added since the 241,000 added in February.
Furthermore, the U.S. services sector grew last month at its fastest pace based on data released by the Institute for Supply Management. The ISM non-manufacturing index ticked up to 61.6, which represents its highest level since 2008, beating out a poll of economists expecting the index to show 58 for the month of September.
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