If JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon’s predictions about the U.S. economy are true, then investors could be in for a bout of seasickness. With fears of a global growth slowdown and the U.S. in the midst of a government shutdown, the economy could be navigating rough waters ahead.
“The U.S. economy is kind of like a ship that’s going it’s going, ex- the shutdown 2 to 2.5 percent and that’s going to keep going for a while,” said Dimon. “Then you have all this other noise, geopolitical noise, Brexit noise, what’s the Fed going to do, … shutdown, trade. They’re kind of buoys in the water in front of that ship. Eventually that may very well cause a slowdown or a recession. I don’t know 2020 or 2021, but the range of possibilities is broader and the range of bad outcomes is increasing.”
Within the backdrop of the capital markets is the ongoing government shutdown, which is now heading in its 33rd day. Dimon said a combination of sound policies communicated clearly to the public is in order.
“The thing we have to do is facts, analysis, details and not just slogans — policies well done and explained to the American public as opposed to slogans and policies that’s implemented and doesn’t work,” Dimon added.
Dimon’s latest comments come as he was quick to forewarn investors last week of a forthcoming recession. However, it won’t be akin to that of the financial crisis in 2008 where his bank and many others were left reeling.
Dimon navigated through the crisis when JPMorgan’s stock price hit a low of $22.85 in December 2008. Now, the stock is trading at above $100 and the investing titan is viewed as a paragon of poise as well as resilience along with his prowess for company growth.
In essence, Dimon is all too familiar with recessions.
“You will have a recession. It just won’t be like you had the last time in … affecting the banking system,” said Dimon.
“Someone’s going to get hurt. The issue there for the marketplace is going to be, we have a recession, the lender will not be there. So a lot of these borrowers will be stranded,” Dimon added.
JP Morgan generated $1.98 per share in profit for the fourth quarter in 2018, falling below the $2.20 per share average estimate of analysts surveyed by data company Refinitiv. Like Citigroup and other banks, JP Morgan’s fixed income trading division took a hit with $1.86 billion in revenue produced as opposed to the $2.2 billion expected.
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