Nonetheless, the words alluding to resiliency may be just that, according to some experts and that the situation is more dire than China is leading the markets to believe.
“China is probably facing its worst period since the global financial crisis. All news is against it,” said Fraser Howie, an independent analyst who has covered China and its financial system.
“They certainly want to play down any talks of panic or near panic … but they’re clear it’s not business as usual in China,” Howie added.
Multinational investment bank J.P. Morgan expects the tariff-for-tariff battle to escalate into a full-blown trade war. Just recently, the firm lowered its ratings for Chinese stocks from neutral to overweight, citing that the trade wars will heighten to a point where its economy is substantially impacted.
“A full-blown trade war becomes our new base case scenario for 2019,” emerging market strategist Pedro Martins Junior said in a note. “There is no clear sign of mitigating confrontation between China and the US in the near term.”
U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a 10% tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods that includes a step-up increase to 25% by the end of the year. The administration moved forward with the tariffs despite both economic superpowers in the midst of scheduled trade talks to ease tariff tensions, but nothing substantial has materialized as of yet.
In less than 24 hours, China responded with $60 billion worth of tariffs on U.S. goods that began in late September. The new round of tariffs from China are said to affect a list of 5,207 products within a range of 5 to 10% as both the U.S. and China have already slapped each other with tariffs worth $50 billion total.
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