“EVs will add 50% to overall demand for cobalt between 2017 and 2025, according to CRU’s base case,” said Fitch. “Many market commentators expect demand for cobalt to exceed its supply due to battery growth. However, the faster adoption of lower cobalt-intensive lithium-manganese-cobalt-oxide (NMC, in particular NMC532, NMC622 and NMC811) and lithium-nickel cobalt-aluminium-oxide (NCA) batteries could temper cobalt demand growth from 2025 onwards. CRU’s forecast is lower than ranges expected by some market analysts, who predict manifold cobalt demand increases.”

Given the policies in place today, China and Europe will be among the biggest adopters of EVs. In China, credits and subsidies could help EVs grow to over a quarter of the car market by 2030. In the mean time, tightening emissions standards and high fuel taxes across Europe could make EVs account for 23% of the market.

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