Copper has been one of 2017’s best-performing commodities. That trend could continue in 2018 as the iPath Bloomberg Copper Subindex Total Return ETN (NYSEArca: JJC) is looking to end this year in solid fashion.
After jumping 6% last week on speculation of labor strikes in Chile, the world’s largest producer of copper, JJC is higher by a similar amount this week.
Some commodities traders are wagering that copper can regain its recently set highs and then some. Industrial metals like copper, nickel, iron and steel have all rebounded in recent months as traders bet on improving global economic conditions would bolster demand for the base metals after prices hit multi-year lows.
“When it comes to the price of copper in 2018 we see a very interesting pattern on copper’s chart. In sum, copper looks strong, and we stick to our belief that $3 was a very important price level,” reports ETF Daily News. “The pattern we see on copper’s chart which is the basis for our copper price forecast 2018: a wide gap between $3 and $4. Yes, correct, we believe that copper will rise to $4 in 2018, provided of course that $3 holds strong.”
A near-term issue for copper is the ability of the Trump Administration to get its ambitious infrastructure efforts off the ground, something many market observers believe will not happen until next year. Additionally, if that effort does not approach the $1 trillion in expenditures promised by the president on the campaign trail, markets could be disappointed.
JJC is an exchange traded note (ETN), not an exchange traded fund (ETF). Similar to index-based exchange traded funds, ETNs also track some sort of index as part of their investment strategy. However, an exchange traded note, like the name implies, is a type of debt note that trades on an exchange. Additionally, the underwriting bank that issues ETN shares may choose to stop share creations.
Copper currently trades around three-year highs due in part to better-than-expected global demand and outperforming economies around the world. The Global X Copper Miners ETF (NYSEARCA: COPX) is also surging on the back of copper’s ascent.
“Between $3 and $4 the copper market is bullish. Above $4 it is wildly bullish … but that’s probably not for 2018 but rather for an even longer term forecast which we will do in some 12 months from now,” according to ETF Daily News.
Barring labor strikes in Chile, copper market observers expect the market to be fairly balanced next year with a modest rise in production. Earlier this year, there was a 44-day strike at a Chilean copper mine, the longest in the country’s history. Since 2009, the country has seen three copper strikes lasting longer than a month.
For more information on Copper ETFs, visit our Copper category.