The United States Oil Fund (NYSEArca: USO), which tracks West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures, and the United States Brent Oil Fund (NYSEArca: BNO), which tracks Brent crude oil futures, are off an average of 16.5% year-to-date. Recent price action in those exchange traded products and oil itself is giving traders little reason to believe a rebound for the commodity is imminent.
Not surprisingly, data suggest professional traders have been turning increasingly bearish on oil while trimming their long exposure to the commodity.
Oil traders are concerned over how fast U.S. shale oil producers will increase production to capture the rising prices. Rig counts have recently ticked higher and with credit and earnings issues improving for some U.S. shale drillers, those companies may seize the opportunity to exploit higher pricing in the near-term.
“Before West Texas Intermediate crude nosedived on Thursday, wiping out the rally driven by OPEC’s deal, money managers slashed bets on rising prices by 20 percent, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. Now they may soon be well poised to start betting on the next rally,” reports Bloomberg.
Some of the struggles of oil and the energy sector this year can be pinned on investors’ concerns regarding the ability of major oil-producing nations, including the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), to effectively reduce production.
While OPEC is cutting back to alleviate price pressures, U.S. fracking companies could jump to capitalize on the windfall as crude oil prices jump back above $50 per barrel – according to some estimates, shale oil producers can get by with oil at just over $50 per barrel due to advancements in technology and drilling techniques that have helped cut down costs.
Active traders now have some new choices to profit from big moves in crude prices. ProShares rolled out the ProShares UltraPro 3x Crude Oil ETF (NYSEArca: OILU) and ProShares UltraPro 3x Short Crude Oil ETF (NYSEArca: OILD) debuted earlier this year.
“Hedge funds decreased their WTI net-long position, or the difference between bets on a price increase and wagers on a drop, to 203,104 futures and options in the week ended May 2, the CFTC data show. Longs fell about 7 percent, while shorts surged 37 percent, following a 26 percent jump a week earlier,” according to Bloomberg.
For more information on the crude oil market, visit our oil category.