Investors looking for a developed market alternative to the U.S. delivering big gains over the past year have not had to look far.
The iShares MSCI Canada ETF (NYSEArca: EWC) is up more than 38% over the past 12 months thanks in part to a gain of almost 6% to start 2017.
That is a reversal of fortune from 2015 when Canadian stocks and ETFs and tumbled due to weakening commodities prices and the slumping Canadian dollar, scenarios that triggered fears of a recession. Canada’s oil production could either lift or weigh on the economy, depending on the energy market. Canada is one of the largest non-OPEC producers in the world.
EWC and Canadian stocks got a boost from the production cut announced earlier this month by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. OPEC plans to diminish output to a range of 32.5 to 33.0 million barrels per day from its current estimated output of 33.24 million barrels per day. While Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s biggest producer, has agreed to reduce output, Iran, Libya and Nigeria might not follow suit.
Oppenheimer technician Ari Wald “also said the rising 200-day moving average on the Canadian index indicates a “bullish trend” that is likely to continue, as the marker hints at higher lows and higher highs. “This is really also all within our more macro thesis that global breadth is broadening here,” he concluded, touching on the rally in non-U.S. Stocks,” reports CNBC.
Other Canada ETFs include the First Trust Canada AlphaDEX Fund (NYSEArca: FCAN), SPDR MSCI Canada Quality Mix ETF (NYSEArca: QCAN) Guggenheim Canadian Energy Income Fund (NYSEArca: ENY) and the IndexIQ Canada Small Cap ETF (NYSEArca: CNDA).
The CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust (NYSE: FXC). FXC, which tracks the movements of the loonie against the U.S. dollar, has also recently been solid among developed market currency ETFs.
Canada’s oil production could either lift or weigh on the economy, depending on the energy market. Additionally, as we hear more about droughts and dry weather conditions, Canada’s freshwater reserves, which account for 20% of the world’s freshwater, could come into play.
“Erin Gibbs, chief investment officer at S&P Global, not only likes the current valuations of Canadian stocks, but thanks to the heavier weighting of energy and materials on the index another rally could be on the way. More specifically, Gibbs believes that if the U.S. and Canada move ahead with the construction of the hotly debated Keystone Pipeline, the heavier weighting of energy and materials stocks on the TSX composite could pull the market even higher,” according to CNBC.