Economic growth targets, if met or exceeded, could provide further upside to ARGT.
“The government reaffirmed a primary deficit target of 4.2% of GDP in 2017, and set targets of 3.2% in 2018 and 2.2% in 2019, above the targets set a year ago. The government also announced quarterly targets and enhanced fiscal reporting to improve transparency,” adds Fitch.
Argentina’s foreign reserves are at nine-year lows. Prices on the country’s commodity exports are down. The budget deficit is at its widest in three decades. Inflation is running at an annual pace of over 20%. Still, this is South America’s third-largest economy and home to abundant natural resources, levering the country to the rebounding commodities trade.
Although ARGT has been a hot trade, there are some risks for investors to consider.
“Besides the federal primary deficit, the rising interest burden and widening deficits at the provincial level are also putting pressure on the broader general government deficit and debt burden. Fitch estimates the general government deficit rose to 6.0% in 2016, from 4.8% of GDP in 2015, and will exceed 5.5% through 2018. This is high relative to a median of 4.4% among ‘B’-rated Fitch sovereigns,” notes Fitch.