After a multi-year rally, the markets have slowed down and moved toward more steady late cycle growth. Nevertheless, investors can still tactically shift toward sector exchange traded fund plays to maximize the benefits of the environment ahead.
The markets have witnessed a defensive rotation over the past two years as profits decelerated, even briefly falling into a so-called profit recession, Fidelity Investments strategists said on a conference call. However, a change in administration could add a pro-cyclical boost to the economy and markets.
Specifically, the Fidelity strategists pointed to corporate tax reforms, which has helped add an 80% odds of increase in CEO confidence from a negative starting point – while consumer confidence has been there, CEO confidence is seen as a pivotal mover.
The so-called animal spirits – human emotions that drives consumer confidence – have also steadily strengthened.
Additionally, financial deregulation, notably rolling back the stringent requirements under Dodd-Frank, could make banks more willing to lend and fuel growth and sustain the economic recovery.
Looking ahead, investors may focus on the financial sector and related ETFs, like the Fidelity MSCI Financials Index ETF (NYSEArca: FNCL), as durable outperformers, if the new Donald Trump administration enacts the many promised positive expansionary policies.
Moreover, as the economy is stimulated, the Fidelity team pointed to materials, energy and industrial sectors that could benefit from the build up, along with parts of the consumer discretionary space that would benefit from wage growth and higher discretionary spending.
Fidelity Sector Strategist Denise Chisholm in a note has also pointed out that the energy sector had experienced the best average performance when the Federal Reserve was raising rates since 1962. The Fed has already hiked rates for the second time in almost a decade and expects to raise interest rates three more times this year. On the other hand, utilities were the worst performers in a rising rate environment.
Investors can capitalize on the potential growth through sector-specific ETFs, like the Fidelity MSCI Energy Index ETF (NYSEArca: FENY), Fidelity MSCI Consumer Discretionary Index (NYSEArca: FDIS), Fidelity MSCI Industrials Index ETF (NYSEArca: FIDU) and Fidelity MSCI Materials Index ETF (NYSEArca: FMAT).
For more information on market sectors, visit our sector ETFs category.