The recent jump in yields was attributed to growing bets of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike to obviate a potentially overheating economy as a result to potential fiscal stimulus under a Trump administration.
“We are reaching a paradigm shift in the bond market,” Matt Eagan, a money manager at Loomis Sayles, told Bloomberg. “Trump’s policies, at least taking them at face value right now, are inflationary at a time when the slack in the economy is actually tightening and we have very aggressive monetary policy.”
Looking at fed funds futures, options traders are betting on a 92% chance the Fed could hike interest rates in December. More anticipate further tightening in the year ahead.
The rise in yields “can continue — we are still at low rate levels,” Priya Misra, head of global rates strategy at TD Securities (USA) LLC, one of 23 primary dealers that trade with the Fed, told Bloomberg. “Another 25 to 50 basis points on the 10-year is possible.”
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