After the first debate in September, many judged Clinton came out ahead, which helped benefit Asian Pacific markets, such as the iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF (NYSEArca: EIDO) and Market Vectors Indonesia Index ETF (NYSEArca: IDX), which target Indonesian markets.
“Our analysis is based on the varying degrees to which different markets are sensitive to factors such as global risk sentiment, US monetary policy, economic implications, and geopolitical considerations. In FX, the Mexican peso (MXN) features prominently as the biggest winner, while the Russian ruble (RUB) is likely to benefit the least. In rates, a Clinton win is generally seen as risk-friendly, and we expect more scope for rates to rally where there are higher correlations with FX via the sentiment channel (Turkish lira (TRY), Brazilian real (BRL), Indonesian rupiah (IDR)). In sovereign credit, geopolitics is a weighty concern and we highlight Mexico, Russia, and Turkey among the main countries affected,” according to a Societe Generale note posted by Dimitra DeFotis of Barron’s.
Commodities prices are rebounding, in turn bolstering some emerging economies, such as Russia, Brazil and other Latin American nations that are represented in diversified emerging markets ETFs. Still, some market observers acknowledge emerging markets appear inexpensive because earnings growth is contracting with little sign of rebounding in the near-term.
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