The weakness could force the central bank to ease its monetary policy, which has been frowned upon by investors given the weakness in the lira currency.
HSBC has warned of potential risks in a weakening lira currency over the near-term, Bloomberg reports. Turkey’s banks have about $100 billion owed to foreign lenders and about $20 billion owed to non-bank institutions that will need to be rolled over, which could grow even costlier if the lira depreciates against foreign currencies.
Moreover, asset managers may shun the emerging market if Erdogan uses the failed coup as an impetus to concentrate political power in his office.
“We expect Turkish assets to be vulnerable in the short term. The worst-case scenario has been avoided as a successful coup would have triggered a full-scale sell-off,” Piotr Matys at Rabobank told the Financial Times. “The damage, however, has been done. Turkish bonds and stocks face a turbulent period due to heightened political risk.”
iShares MSCI Turkey ETF