Note: This article is courtesy of Iris.xyz
By Frank Holmes
Brexit has dominated world headlines for the last couple of weeks, and with good reason: The U.K.’s historic referendum has already roiled markets around the globe; raised serious questions about immigration, trade and diplomacy; cast a harsh spotlight on the EU’s avalanche of rules and regulations; and divided member states on the best way forward. Among other far-reaching consequences, Brexit could end up causing Europe to rethink its sanctions policy against Russia, following a vote in Brussels last week to extend them another six months.
Nearly everyone agrees that Russia and President Vladimir Putin are among the winners because of Brexit. The U.K. is the EU’s most vocal critic of Russia’s 2014 annexation of the Crimean Peninsula and was instrumental in the decision to levy sanctions against the country’s financials, energy and defense sectors two years ago.
Several EU countries, including Austria and Hungary, have expressed interest in lifting, or at least softening, sanctions, as they can no longer afford to miss out on trade with Russia. Countries that have faced difficulty offsetting lost trade opportunities are Finland, Poland and the Baltic states—Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania. The French parliament recently adopted a resolution to urge Brussels to drop all sanctions. Italy’s Upper House of Parliament, meanwhile, approved a resolution opposing any automatic renewal of sanctions.
Britain’s exclusion from any future policy decision-making, then, could help Moscow’s chances to renegotiate terms.
In the long term, this bodes well for Russia’s economy, which has been hammered by not just sanctions but also falling oil prices during the last two years. In 2013, energy accounted for 70 percent of all exports, with crude alone representing a third. What’s helped keep oil producers profitable is the weakened ruble, which has lowered labor costs while making exports more competitive.
Double Whammy: Sanctions and Low Oil Prices
Estimates vary as to which has done more damage to the country’s currency—sanctions or the drop in Brent oil. As I’ve pointed out before, there’s a clear correlation between the ruble and oil prices.
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