On Wednesday, 23 exchange traded products hit all-time lows and the bulk of those products were commodities funds. The iPath Dow Jones-UBS Copper Subindex Total Return ETN (NYSEArca: JJC), an exchange traded note, is included in that group.
JJC has tumbled 29.4% year-to-date as slack demand for the red metal from China has prompted an array of global banks to pare their outlooks on copper. Goldman Sachs argues that the base metal is headed for a seven-year-long bear market cycle, reports Aza Wee Sile for CNBC.
“It is, in our view, highly likely that the four-year trend decline in copper prices is set to continue through at least 2018,” Goldman Sachs said in a note.
The U.S. dollar has been strengthening on greater speculation that the Federal Reserve will begin tightening its monetary policy in December after the surprisingly strong October jobs report. Most raw materials are priced in dollars and historically a strong USD has pressured commodities.
The stronger dollar and rate hike expectations have also lessened demand for gold ETFs, which have seen demand plunge to six-year lows, reports Ranjeetha Pakiam for Bloomberg. Along with the dollar pressure, gold is less attractive in a rising rate environment because the asset does not generate a yield.
Some commodities, like copper, are lower on the economic weakness in China, a major raw materials consumer, and other emerging markets.
Earlier in July, Deutsche Bank also cut its copper projections due to weak Chinese demand. DB also expects rising supply in 2016 on new mine commissions, which could cause copper to “remain vulnerable to periodic bouts of ‘shorting.’”
“Codelco, the largest producer, has cut the premium it will charge buyers in China next year by the most since the global financial crisis, while Arc Resources Co. predicts a 10 percent drop in refined imports by the biggest consumer in 2016,” reports Martin Ritchie for Bloomberg.
Lastly, wetter conditions in Chile, the world’s largest copper producer, could lead to flooding in copper mines, which would impede supply. That could provide some relief, albeit temporarily, to copper prices.
iPath Dow Jones-UBS Copper Subindex Total Return ETN
