Are Your Bond ETFs Optimized For Rising Rates?

Bond values will, definitionally, fall when interest rates rise. However, different types of bonds have differing characteristics.

The chart below shows the annual performance of the S&P 500 Bond Index and the S&P/BG Cantor 7-10 US Treasury Bond Index. (The S&P/BG Cantor 7-10 US Treasury Bond Index is the treasury index most similar to the S&P 500 Bond Index in duration and yield.) Notably, the performance of corporate debt and Treasuries diverged in the 2008 financial crisis and the recovery thereafter.

As between the S&P 500 Bond index and the S&P/BG Cantor 7-10 US Treasury Bond Index, the former is much more correlated to the S&P 500, 0.256 versus -0.194, respectively. This is not surprising, since corporate debt carries a higher risk than Treasuries. When crisis is such a threat that corporations’ survival is at peril then naturally debt issued by corporations will also be in danger of default.