The iShares MSCI Turkey ETF (NYSEArca: TUR) continues to be one of the worst-performing single-country emerging markets exchange traded funds. On Wednesday, the lone dedicated Turkey ETF slumped 3% to close at its lowest levels since the second quarter of 2009.
Global investors are dumping Turkish bonds, making the lira one of the worst-performing emerging currencies against the dollar this year. The central bank is under increased pressure to act in order to assuage market fears and prop up the quickly depreciating lira currency, especially in an uncertain political climate where there is rising risk of a snap election – President Tayyip Erdogan could call for a snap election on August 23 if a coalition government has not formed. The government has been the most vocal about cutting interest rates to stimulate growth. [Central Bank no Help to Turkey ETF]
Istanbul’s benchmark stock index has underperformed the MSCI Emerging Market Index amid political upheaval – Turkey’s ruling party failed to secure a majority in the June national elections, which created uncertainty in the markets as the country works on hodgepodge coalition.
Additionally, the slack performance turned in this year by Turkish stocks deals a blow to the notion that the country, a net oil importer, would benefit from slumping oil prices.
However, after the recent selling sent the local index to its sharpest weekly plunge in 10 months, JPMorgan Chase & Co. argues that the Turkish equities have become more appealing, Bloomberg reports. The bank says that Turkey is the only market across central and eastern Europe, along with the Middle East, to be considered “inexpensive.” [Russia, Turkey ETFs May Be Opportunities in Emerging Market Space]
Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch also recommends taking a look at Turkish industrial companies with strong earnings and growth prospects.
“Generally investors should be aware that the MSCI Turkey Index is not a good proxy of the Turkish economy. The index is heavily biased towards financials (around 43%), whereas the sector represents less than 5% of the country’s GDP. The TUR ETF provides diversification benefits when added to an equity strategy as it offers the following correlations vs: EEM (0.7) and SPY (0.47),” according to Emerging Equity.
For the daring bargain hunter, Emerging Equity recommends TUR “as a satellite position within a global world or a global emerging markets or a more local EM strategy strategy. Investors should always check the allocation of the country within their underlying benchmark in order to play it on a tactical basis.”
iShares MSCI Turkey ETF
