Decked by tumbling commodities prices, Canadian stocks and the relevant exchange traded funds trading in the U.S. have suffered this year, but the bad times could continue as the northern neighbor to the U.S. enters a recession.
The combination of a weakening energy outlook and the depreciating currencies are dragging on the ETFs that cover the major exporting countries. Meanwhile, currencies of major oil exporters, including Canada, Russia and Nigeria, depreciated against the U.S. dollar as energy prices dipped on a stronger USD, slowing global growth outlook and ongoing supply glut, the Wall Street Journal reports.
The Bank of Canada has been a reliable arm in guiding the Canadian economy, writes Luke Kawa for Bloomberg. For instance, the central bank was among the first to adopt a formal inflation target and has enjoyed success in achieving its targets. [Canada ETF Back on Track with Economy Recovering]
Over the past year, the iShares MSCI Canada ETF (NYSEArca: EWC) is off more than 27%, easily putting the largest U.S.-listed Canada ETF into bear market territory. The CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust (NYSE: FXC) is down 17.4% over the same period, making it one of the worst-performing currency ETFs over that time.
Canada’s GDP “fell by an annualised rate of 0.5% between April and June. That follows a contraction of 0.8% in the first quarter, meaning the economy has seen two consecutive quarters of negative growth, the usual definition of recession,” reports the BBC.
Canada’s oil production could either lift or weigh on the economy, depending on the energy market. Additionally, as we hear more about droughts and dry weather conditions, Canada’s freshwater reserves, which account for 20% of the world’s freshwater, could come into play.
But at the moment, the loonie looms large for Canada ETFs and that could prove to be a drag on those funds and the broader Canadian economy. In fact, some analysts see an extended, multi-year period of loonie weakness ahead.
Looking ahead, Canada’s market could experience further volatility around the October elections as political runners plan the future of the country’s infrastructure development, access to markets and climate policy over the next five years. [Problems for the Loonie]
“The last time the country was in recession was during the financial crisis of 2008-09. As an oil exporting country, Canada has been hit by a fall in the price of the commodity,” reports the BBC.
iShares MSCI Canada ETF
