The SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEArca: GLD), iShares Gold Trust (NYSEArca: IAU) and ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Shares (NYSEArca: SGOL) and other gold-related exchange traded products posted solid gains last week with GLD, the largest gold-backed ETF, gaining 2% after the Federal Reserve passed raising interest rates.
However, with the Fed’s September meeting now in the rear view mirror, gold ETFs could be lacking catalysts for additional near-term upside.
Dragging on the gold market, volatility is beginning to ease after markets try to recover from the swift correction – gold is seen as a safe-haven asset that provides a good store of wealth during tumultuous market conditions. Additionally, the U.S. dollar is beginning to strengthen against foreign currencies – gold is priced in USD, so further buying becomes pricier for foreign investors. [Safe-Haven Demand, Dovish Fed Help Gold ETFs Regain Ground]
“A ‘longer-term decline” will likely follow Friday’s climb, which will limit opportunities for investors buying the metal, said Thomas Vitiello, principal at Aurum Options Strategies, in an interview with CNBC.
Additionally, gold is seeing greater support from safe-haven demand after currency devaluations across Asia added to investment demand for a better store of value than paper currencies or stocks and bonds. Bullion was recovering lost ground after dropping to a five-year low last month on concerns that the Fed would hike rates as early as September. Obviously, a rate hike for 2015 can now only happen in October or December.
Gold has been in a 2-year bear market, which has seen failed rallies on the back of various news events. Continued strength in the US economy and labor market has offset political and economic events since the Gold market turned bearish in 2013.
“Short selling in response to the Fed may have contributed to the jump in gold prices Friday, Vitiello said. He added that it may otherwise remain stuck in a ‘sideways range,’” according to CNBC.
Gold futures and physically-backed ETFs have been pressure this year amid speculation the Federal Reserve is preparing to raise interest rates, which has pushed the dollar higher. Higher interest rates would diminish gold’s attractiveness since the precious metal does not pay interest like fixed-income assets.
Demand for gold in China is faltering and there is concern India will not be able to pick up the slack.
According to the World Gold Council, India imported 891.5 tons of gold last year while demand was 811.1 metric tons. The council believes consumption will increase to between 900 tons and 1,000 tons this year. [India Unlikely to Stem Gold’s Decline]
SPDR Gold Shares
Tom Lydon’s clients own shares of GLD.