For advisors and investors that are active followers of emerging markets currencies and equities, it probably will not come as a surprise that the currency being referenced in the headline of this piece hails from Latin America: The Brazilian real.
Much like the Mexican peso, the real is in a wicked slump against against the dollar and resides at multi-year lows against the greenback. Year-to-date, the WisdomTree Brazilian Real ETF (NYSEArca: BZF), which follows real currency movements against the dollar, is off 18.4%. Not surprisingly, BZF joined the 52-week low club again on Wednesday and some traders see more pain ahead for the Brazilian currency.
“Having calculated an 11 percent profit shorting Brazil’s real, Societe Generale AG now predicts the world’s worst-performing major currency of the year will slide past 4 per dollar for the first time since 2002,” reports Justina Lee for Bloomberg.
Brazil’s central bank has proven impotent at stemming the real’s slide.
“The Central Bank of Brazil increased its key interest rate by 50bps to 14.25 percent on July 29th, the highest level since October 2006. It was the seventh consecutive hike as the country struggles to deal with the persistent rise in consumer prices,” according to Trading Economics.
The real could face increasing pressure as global investors price in the rising odds of Brazil losing its investment-grade credit rating.
New details regarding Brazil’s tenuous grasp on an investment-grade credit rating are emerging and those details could limit the near-term upside for EWZ and rival Brazil ETFs. On Tuesday, Standard & Poor’s pared its outlook on Brazil’s rating to negative from stable. S&P did not shy away from noting that could lower Brazil’s sovereign debt rating to junk territory. The ratings agency currently rates Brazilian debt BBB-, the lowest investment grade. [Bad News for Brazil ETFs]
SocGen said the real “is arguably the most vulnerable emerging-market currency at this point, facing rapidly worsening fundamentals on top of a fragile external backdrop,” reports Bloomberg.
Investors looking to profit from the real’s slump can consider the actively managed WisdomTree Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Bullish Fund (NYSEArca: USDU). USDU measures the dollar against a basket of foreign currencies, including some emerging markets fare such as the real.
WisdomTree Brazilian Real ETF
