Add the Canadian dollar, also known as the loonie, to the list of currencies being drubbed by falling commodities prices and the rising U.S. dollar. Year-to-date, the CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust (NYSE: FXC) is down more than 11% and that ETF faces even more headwinds.
The combination of a weakening energy outlook and the depreciating currencies are dragging on the ETFs that cover the major exporting countries. Meanwhile, currencies of major oil exporters, including Canada, Russia and Nigeria, depreciated against the U.S. dollar as energy prices dipped on a stronger USD, slowing global growth outlook and ongoing supply glut, the Wall Street Journal reports.
The Bank of Canada has been a reliable arm in guiding the Canadian economy, writes Luke Kawa for Bloomberg. For instance, the central bank was among the first to adopt a formal inflation target and has enjoyed success in achieving its targets. [Canada ETF Back on Track with Economy Recovering]
The country also enjoys large natural resource reserves. As we have witness, Canada’s oil production could either lift or weigh on the economy, depending on the energy market. Additionally, as we hear more about droughts and dry weather conditions, Canada’s freshwater reserves, which account for 20% of the world’s freshwater, could come into play.
But at the moment, the loonie looms large for Canada ETFs and that could prove to be a drag on those funds and the broader Canadian economy. In fact, some analysts see an extended, multi-year period of loonie weakness ahead.
“Macquarie analyst David Doyle, however, sees a larger macroeconomic theme that will drive U.S. economic outperformance of its northern neighbor and propel the loonie to fresh lows against the greenback. Based on similar historical examples, this rough patch for the Canadian dollar could last up to 10 years,” reports Bloomberg.
Some observers have warned of a bubbling real estate sector, and traders have bet against Canadian real estate through shorting Canadian banks. In the meantime, the national median home price continues to climb to all-time highs. We will have to monitor how the government plans to engineer a soft landing for the real estate market in an attempt to mitigate a potential fallout.
Looking ahead, Canada’s market could experience further volatility around the October elections as political runners plan the future of the country’s infrastructure development, access to markets and climate policy over the next five years.
CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust
