However, traders should note that while the gold seasonal trade has worked better than half the time over the past four decades, the odds of success are not overwhelming.
“Entering long positions on or about August 26 and holding until October 1 has worked 23 times in the last 40 years for a success rate of 57.5%. In the 18 years since 1996, this trade has been profitable 13 times with a cumulative potential profit of $18,640 per single futures contract,” according to Almanac Trader.
Moreover, some of the trades worst performances arrived in recent years with big losses in three of the past four years, including 2014, notes Almanac Trader.
SPDR Gold Shares
Tom Lydon’s clients own shares of GLD.