Times are hard physically-backed silver exchange traded funds. The iShares Silver Trust (NYSEArca: SLV) and the ETFS Physical Silver Shares (NYSEArca: SIVR) closed Thursday near multi-year lows.
Year-to-date, the two silver ETFs are off nearly 5% apiece and things are really ugly over the past two years as SLV has shed 23.3% of its value over that period. For those keeping score at home, a 20% loss is all that is needed to fit the definition of a bear market.
Suffice to say, it has been a trying time for investors that have been long silver ETFs, but one noted technical analyst sees the possibility for some upside for the moribund white metal.
“Could Silver be creating a huge multi-decade bullish Cup & Handle pattern, even though its lost 65% of its value in the last 4-years?,” ponders Chris Kimble of Kimble Charting Solutions. “It has been a FUGLY 4-years for Silver, as its lost two-thirds of its value, since creating a potential double top back in 2011. With Silver down 65%, is it a stretch to say that Silver is still in an uptrend, where cup & handle patterns historically take place? Yes!”
On the supply side, silver miners are finding less deposits and producers are expanding into new projects, which suggests that silver could be in shorter supply ahead. Additionally, there is the money valuation angle. As central banks keep dumping money into the world economy, paper money becomes less valuable and hard assets, like silver, become a better store of wealth.
Last year, silver mine output grew just 5% to 877.5 million and there are fears such tepid production will not keep pace with demand from industries such as solar and technology. [Silver ETFs Looking Good]
Still, it has been more than a month since SLV and SIVR traded above their 200-day moving averages. Additionally, the 200-day line is getting close to crossing below the 50-day moving average, which signal an ominous death cross scenario.
Understandable it is hard to find Silver bulls right now, as bullish sentiment on Silver stands around 20%, a far cry from the levels back in 2011 (82% Silver bulls)! If the monster cup & handle pattern read would happen to be correct, a big upside move in Silver would be in the cards,” adds Kimble.
Investors have pulled $39 million from SLV this year. SIVR has seen only modest outflows.
Chart Courtesy: Kimble Charting Solutions