Of course, the risks of a Greek default have always been in the unknowable, the fall in confidence, the “contagion” — the secondary consequences. And it is in this respect that the world is different. Europe’s economy overall is growing again, and is more immune to shock. The majority of the region’s banks have completed stress tests in 2014 that, unlike the 2011 equivalents, explicitly tested robustness in the event of a default by Greece’s government. The financial markets have had ample time to prepare for downstream effects. Most importantly, the economies and markets viewed as most likely to suffer from contagion — Ireland, Italy, Portugal and, to a lesser extent, Spain – are looking much healthier. It is harder to see the next domino to fall.
In short, a Greek default looks more palatable today than at any point since this crisis began. And that is important precisely because political forces are at the heart of negotiations. If a default is more economically bearable, it is more politically feasible.
Europe does not want Greece to default, but it is a balance. The scales are now differently tipped. The Greek government does not wish to default either. But they were elected to renegotiate the terms of the current bailout agreements, remain in the euro currency block and to “end austerity”. If not all of those objectives can be achieved, they may well see the last objective as paramount. If a last minute deal is found, our headline can be put back into storage to be ready for the next crisis.
Thus characterized: a Greek default might indeed occur, but only if it doesn’t really matter.
This article was written by Tim Edwards, direct, index investment strategy, S&P Dow Jones Indices.
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