It has been one year since the supply and demand disconnect in the oil market sent energy stock exchange traded funds spiraling downward, and the energy sector may still be under pressure without a meaningful rebound in crude prices.
Since the June 2014 highs, the Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSEArca: XLE) has declined 24.3%. [Fading Optimism in Energy Sector ETFs]
The S&P 500 Energy Sector, the underlying benchmark for XLE, touched an all-time high of $737.09 a year ago but ended at $558.01 on Monday. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures plunged over 40% over the past year.
Cornerstone Macro technical analyst Carter Worth argues that the diverging performance in the oil market and energy companies suggest that the energy sector could see further pain ahead, reports Amanda Diaz for CNBC.
“While there’s almost always a divergence between the stocks and the commodity, [this]divergence is particularly wide and present,”Worth told CNBC, “Either crude needs to come up substantially or energy needs to come down.”
Morgan Stanley’s Adam Longson also believes that the oil oil market will remain depressed as increased supply comes on online, pointing to the large amount of oil still sitting on supertankers.
“If there are this many challenged cargoes in this strong demand environment, we worry about the outlook for physical oil this fall when crude runs and gasoline demand fall seasonally,” Longson said in a note, according to Business Insider. “When combined with risk of new supply from Libya and Iran, a more range bound (if not lower), yet volatile, oil price environment seems increasingly likely in 2H15.”
Consequently, Worth believes that XLE could dip to prior lows, or fall to about $71.7 – the fund’s previous January lows, pointing to a breakdown in short- and long-term trends. Specifically, the technical analyst said the ETF has broken below its long-term, five-year trend-line.
XLE is currently trading at 4.2% below its 200-day simple moving average and 3.2% below its 50-day simple moving average.
“The conclusion is that energy stocks as a group, as a theme, as a sector are likely to continue to underperform the overall market—just as they did last week, last month, the past two months, 12 months, two years and five years,” Worth said.
Energy Select Sector SPDR
For more information on the energy sector, visit our energy category.
Max Chen contributed to this article.