Certain asset classes, such as investment grade bonds have a high correlation to Treasuries, thus have much more interest rate sensitivity. That means if rates (yields) increase in Treasury bonds, and prices decline, we would theoretically see the same sort of action in investment grade bonds—price declines. However, as noted above, high yield bonds are slightly negatively correlated to Treasuries, so we would expect to theoretically see minimal impact from a move in Treasuries, or even an increase in high yield bond prices.
Looking at the actual returns for the high yield asset class, in the 15 calendar year periods since 1980 where we saw Treasury yields increase, high yield bonds posted an average return of 13.7% over those annual periods.3 A few other things to keep in mind, high yield bonds have historically been much more linked to credit quality than interest rates. We would expect to see rates rise during stable to improving economic conditions, which we would expect to be favorable to business fundamentals and credit metrics, and thus to high yield investors.
While we don’t expect a rapid increase in rates, if rates do rise, high yield bonds have a good historical track record in this type of environment. Given the low to negative Treasury correlations versus other asset classes, an allocation to high yield bonds may serve to improve a portfolio’s diversification and potentially even lower risk depending on the mix of assets.
1Data sourced from Bloomberg as of March 24, 2015.
2Acciavatti, Peter D., Tony Linares, Nelson Jantzen, CFA, Rahul Sharma, and Chuanxin Li. “2014 High-Yield Annual Review.” J.P. Morgan, North American High Yield and Leveraged Loan Research. December 29, 2014, p. A153.
3Data sourced from: Acciavatti, Peter Tony Linares, Nelson R. Jantzen, CFA, Rahul Sharma, and Chuanxin Li. “2008 High Yield-Annual Review,” J.P. Morgan North American High Yield Research, December 2008, p. 113. “High-Yield Market Monitor,” J.P. Morgan, January 5, 2009, January 5, 2010, January 3, 2011, January 3, 2012, January 2, 2013, and January 2, 2014. 2008-2012 Treasury data sourced from Bloomberg (US Generic Govt 5 Yr), 2013 data from the Federal Reserve website.
This article was written by Heather Rupp, CFA, Director of Research for Peritus Asset Management, the sub-advisory firm of the AdvisorShares Peritus High Yield ETF (HYLD).