During last year’s commodities rout, copper was savagely repudiated with the iPath Dow Jones-UBS Copper Subindex Total Return ETN (NYSEArca: JJC) sliding 18.1%.
Now, the red metal with a PhD in forecasting global economic moves is turning around. With sentiment still well-stacked in favor of copper bears, the industrial metal could be poised to deliver significant upside to traders bold enough to initiate bullish bets.
“Doc Copper has been under the weather the past few years. After hitting the $4.50 level back in 2011, it has proceeded to lose around 40% of its value over the past four years,” according to Chris Kimble of Kimble Charting Solutions.
Copper’s decline has the red metal in an interesting technical position, as Kimble notes.
“Copper now finds itself at the 50% Fibonacci support level, based up the 1999 low/2011 highs. Copper bulls are not easy to find, only 24% at this time,” he said.
Bulls are starting to come around. JJC is up 10% over the past month and that ebullience is trickling down to other copper-related ETFs. For example, the First Trust ISE Global Copper Index Fund (NasdaqGM: CU) and the Global X Copper Miners ETF (NYSEArca: COPX) are each up nearly 15% over the past month.
COPX tracks the Solactive Global Copper Miners Index, which gives the ETF substantial global exposure. Over half of the ETF’s combined weight is allocated to Canadian and Australian companies. Although emerging markets are some of the world’s largest copper producers, COPX’s exposure to developing economies is scant. [Copper Miners ETF Rallies]
Speaking of emerging markets and copper, shares of the iShares MSCI Chile Capped ETF (NYSEArca: ECH), the lone ETF dedicated to tracking equities in the world’s largest copper-producing country, are up more than 4% last month. [Copper Crimps Chile ETF]
That is an encouraging because in 2014, ECH was one of the worst-performing Latin America single-country ETFs due in large part to copper’s tumble. “Copper roughly represents 40% of the country’s export revenue and minerals constitute the majority of the revenue in total,” according to Emerging Equity.
“Should Doc Copper hold at support start pushing higher, could it be sending a message that economic conditions are improving? It is to soon to make that call at this time. Humbly, I do feel Copper would send a concerning global message should it breakdown below these support points,” according to Kimble.
Chart Courtesy: Kimble Charting Solutions