Brent crude oil futures, the global benchmark contract, are trading modestly higher in Asian trading Tuesday and that could be a sign the United States Brent Oil Fund (NYSEArca: BNO) is poised to continue a rally that has seen one of 2014’s worst-performing ETFs surge 24.5% over the past month.
There are more indications that BNO can continue its recently bullish ways.
“Money managers’ net wagers on rising prices rose 13 percent to 158,974 contracts in the week ended Feb. 10, the highest since the early days of last year’s oil slump on July 8, according to figures from the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange ,” reports Grant Smith for Bloomberg.
The other side of the equation for Brent and BNO in the near-term is that Brent’s recent rise has been fueled more by traders trimming short positions than initiating fresh bullish bets. After months of selling, bearish traders may have gotten complacent, betting on further declines in the oil market as a given. Consequently, any sudden change in the supply side could trigger quick rebounds, especially if there is a short squeeze. [Short Covering Lifts Oil ETFs]
This month, BNO has added nearly $13 million in new assets. BNO’s year-to-date inflows figure is closer to $53 million. Rebounding Brent prices are also helping other once moribund ETFs.
For example, the Market Vectors Russia ETF (NYSEArca: RSX), the largest Russia ETF, joined BNO as one of 2014’s worst ETFs, but with this year’s Brent rally, RSX has surged 23.4%. That is enough to make RSX the best non-leveraged ETF to this point in 2015. [Bullish on Russia ETFs]
RSX bulls need to monitor BNO and Brent futures because Russia prices its vast oil production in Brent terms. Russia is the largest non-OPEC producer in the world and as such, Moscow is more dependent on oil output as a percentage of government receipts than any other non-OPEC nation.
United States Brent Oil Fund
ETF Trends editorial team contributed to this post.