As prices fall, money becomes more valuable because the same number of dollars buys more. Incentives to spend or invest whither as consumers and business recognize that it is easier and safer to leave money in the bank and watch it appreciate in value. Over time the economy would gradually grind to a halt.
Deflation is also a challenge for the central bank. While prices drift down, advice to the European Central Bank (ECB) is mounting higher and higher. The ECB is expected to implement quantitative easing, but it will face some challenges. First, the supply of bonds is smaller and more diverse than what the Fed bought in the US, making the program harder to implement and its impact harder to gauge. Secondly, Germany may try to block or limit quantitative easing out of fears that it would bailout debtor countries or sow the seeds of future inflation. Hopefully the ECB will move quickly and aggressively – the longer it waits, the worse will be consumer spending and business investment and the harder it will be to make any progress. Even an aggressive QE program may not work in the near term. Chances of successfully reversing deflation and avoiding recession without some fiscal stimulus are limited.
This article was written by David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee, S&P Dow Jones Indices.
© S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2013. Indexology® is a trademark of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC (SPDJI). S&P® is a trademark of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones® is a trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, and those marks have been licensed to SPDJI. This material is reproduced with the prior written consent of SPDJI. For more information on SPDJI, visit http://www.spdji.com