With all the turbulence in the global markets these days, it appears that many U.S. investors are choosing to turn down the volume over the holidays, perhaps saving their song for when volatility improves.
Do you see what I see?
The big volatility driver lately, particularly in the emerging and frontier markets, has been plummeting crude oil prices, which sank from more than $115 a barrel this summer to below $60. The decline was a mixed blessing. It hurt major oil exporters such as Russia and Nigeria, but provided a boost for countries that import the bulk of their energy, like China and India.
Despite the choppy final quarter, we continue to see an attractive entry point for both markets. Fundamentals are still strong, and if anything, valuations have only improved with the market declines. While we’re keeping a close watch on what could change, it may be time to turn up the volume and embrace the song.
Let’s tune in to what’s been happening in EM:
The fallout from the decline in oil has reinforced the growing differences among emerging market countries. Russia has been among the most challenged, of course. The country’s economy has been suffering a perfect storm of a loss in oil revenue from its major export, a sharp slide in the ruble, and sanctions due to the crisis in Eastern Ukraine. Russia badly needs political reform to jumpstart growth, but it’s difficult to see how it can come about in the current regime. While there may be broader knock-on effects from Russia’s problems, its roughly 3 percent* presence in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index(SM) means its investment impact is relatively small.
On the bright side, emerging countries in Asia, predominately net importers of oil, have benefited from the cheaper prices. With more money in their pockets, consumers in major markets such as Korea, China and India are expected to increase spending and help boost economic growth. Lower oil prices also give governments in these countries greater leeway to continue implementing monetary and policy reforms.
Given the recent selloff, now may be a good time to consider rebuilding your exposure in emerging markets. A broad-based fund like the iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG) can help reduce the impact of economic swings in any one country or sector.
Frontier markets: more than an energy play
There are a number of reasons why we continue to see opportunity in frontier markets. These nascent economies―tomorrow’s emerging markets―offer long-term growth potential. They’re also one of the few asset classes that provide strategic diversification to broader equities. Nigeria represents the second-largest holding in our iShares MSCI Frontier 100 ETF (FM) Unfortunately, recently there have been some scratches in that record.
What happened in Nigeria? In addition to suffering economically from the decline in oil prices, the country has been vulnerable to speculative runs on its currency (the Naira). The central bank has been plowing foreign exchange reserves to defend the currency, a task that has become more difficult with the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Recently, however, the central bank implemented capital controls to restrict trading, which appears to be working as the Naira has stabilized.
Frontier markets are much more than an oil play. Despite Nigeria’s large position in FM, energy represents only 12 percent of the index. More importantly, individual frontier markets generally have little correlation to each other, which reduces the likelihood of contagion. And like emerging markets, the recent sell off makes now a good time to consider investing.
Do you hear what I hear? Up next: what to expect in 2015
The world’s economies and markets have had an eventful 2014. In my next blog, I’ll share our thinking on what had the biggest impact and what to expect in the months ahead. Until then, I wish you a happy holiday season and a successful 2015.
Do you hear what I hear when it comes to emerging and frontier markets? Share your thoughts with us.
*The country weight for IEMG, which tracks the IMI index, is currently 3.05% as of 12/24/14
Heidi Richardson is a Global Investment Strategist at BlackRock, working with Chief Investment Strategist Russ Koesterich. She also leads the iThinking initiative for iShares. You can find more of her posts here.