With energy prices depressed, gold and bullion-related exchange traded funds are seeing diminished demand as a hedge against inflation.
On Monday, the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEArca: GLD), iShares Gold Trust (NYSEArca: IAU) and ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Shares (NYSEArca: SGOL) were up about 1.3%. The gold ETFs have dipped almost 2% in the past three months.
Physically backed gold exchange traded products saw bullion holdings diminish to the lowest since 2009 last week, Bloomberg reports.
Gold has been used as a safe store of value. However, as oil prices decline, markets are anticipating lower inflation levels.
The Labor Department revealed that the consumer price index fell to a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in November, the steepest one-month dip in almost six years, reports Josh Mitchell for the Wall Street Journal.
“The tumble in oil prices is detrimental to gold’s health,” David Meger, the director of metal trading at Vision Financial Markets, said in the Bloomberg article. “Of course, the dollar and expectations of strong GDP continue to weigh on gold.”
The stronger U.S. dollar has also made gold, which is priced in USD, more expensive for foreign investors. The greenback is now trading near a five-year high against a basket of 10 currencies due to Federal Reserve interest rate hike expectations.
While some may argue that the low inflation below the Fed’s 2% target would keep rates depressed for the time being, the Fed believes the drop in oil prices is only temporary. Consequently, the central bank will likely determine policy based on core inflation, which excludes food and energy costs and rose 0.1% November to 1.7%.
Money managers are already reducing their positions in gold, with Comex futures and options falling for the first time in five weeks for the week ended Dec. 16. Comex gold futures are now trading around $1,179.6 per ounce.
“The overall environment is very negative for gold,” Phil Streible, a senior commodity broker at R.J. O’Brien & Associates, said in the Bloomberg article. “The market will remain volatile as trading will be very thin for the next two weeks.”
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Full disclsoure: Tom Lydon’s clients own shares of GLD.