Oil futures and related exchange traded funds slipped Monday after Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) extended its bearish outlook on the energy market, citing overseas production to outpace global demand, the shale oil boom in the U.S. and smaller impact of the OPEC oligopoly.
On Monday, the United States Brent Oil Fund (NYSEArca: BNO) and United States Oil Fund (NYSEArca: USO), which tracks West Texas Intermediate oil, both dipped about 0.6%. Year-to-date, BNO has declined 23.3% and USO fell 12.6%.
Goldman Sachs emphasized its confident outlook for an oversupplied global oil market on Monday, reports Izabella Kaminska for the Financial Times.
“As a result, we are bringing forward our medium-term bearish oil outlook,” according to Goldman Sachs analysts. “We now forecast that prices will need to decline further in 2015 as (1) accelerating non-OPEC production growth outside North America will outpace demand growth, leaving the oil market oversupplied, (2) the scale and sustainability of US shale oil production is driving the global cost curve lower and sustaining cost deflation, and (3) OPEC will no longer act as the first-mover swing producer and that US shale oil output will be called upon to fill this role.”
Consequently, Goldman analysts has downwardly revised its WTI crude oil futures outlook to $75 per barrel for the first quarter and second half of 2015 from $90 per barrel previously. The bank also believes oil prices will be weakest in the second quarter of 2015, with WTI prices down to $70 per barrel and Brent crude futures to hover around $80 per barrel. [Oil ETFs To Remain Depressed As Saudis Target Lower Prices]
WTI crude futures were trading around $80.5 per barrel Monday while Brent oil futures were hovering around $85.3 per barrel.
Oil prices, though, are expected to begin rising in 2016, with a target of $80 per barrel WTI and $90 per barrel Brent, after OPEC members squeezed out U.S. producers.
“In 2016 we expect stabilizing fundamentals with moderate cuts to OPEC production once a slowdown in US production growth is apparent,” Goldman analysts added.
Meanwhile, the lower oil prices will have a significant negative effect on the U.S. oil industry, creating a more cyclical market. Goldman believes that a $80 per barrel WTI crude is the threshold where reinvestment rates become unfavorable in U.S. energy. [Investors Return to Oil ETFs]
Recently, Citigroup argued that “full-cycle” costs, which include land, infrastructure, well drilling and operating costs, for new shale projects require oil prices of at least $70 to $80 per barrel, reports Bob Pisani for CNBC.
Consequently, hydraulic fracturing and oil services companies could feel the brunt of the pain in a low oil price environment. For instance, the Market Vectors Unconventional Oil & Gas ETF (NYSEArca: FRAK) has declined 21.5% over the past three months while the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (NYSEArca: XOP) has dropped 26.0%. [Fracking ETF Frustrated by Tumbling Oil Prices]
United States Oil Fund
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