Slack global demand for commodities and the subsequently lower prices for oil to natural gas to coal has pressured the Guggenheim Global Shipping ETF (NYSEArca: SEA), sending the ETF to an 8.6% year-to-date loss.
Despite that glum performance, SEA could be ready to reverse course, delivering big gains to investors in the process. “U.S. marine shipping stocks are poised to see their shares climb 59 percent in the next 12 months,” report Jack Kaskey and Naomi Christie for Bloomberg.
If realized, that gain would be the best among any of the sub-sectors in the Russell 3000 Index, according to Bloomberg. With global economic growth forecast to be robust next year, SEA could shake out of its doldrums in the coming months to end 2014 on a strong note, positioning the ETF for high-flyer status in 2015. There are already signs of some positivity for the $85.2 million ETF.
Day rates for Capesize vessels hauling about 160,000 metric tons of commodity surged 38% Tuesday, the largest percentage gain since record keeping started in March 1999. Chinese imports from commodity producing countries, like Australia and Brazil, are on the rise. [Shipping ETF Looks for Durability]
Although oil prices have been slumping, costs for moving crude around the world are rising, notes Bloomberg. That underscores an important point about SEA, which is the ETF is not the play on the Baltic Dry Index that some investors erroneously frame the ETF to be.
The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BIDY) is probably more closely associated with SEA. That index, which has recently soared, aggregates rates from major trade routes every day and is a good indicator of overall shipping rates hired to move crude oil. Oil and gas storage and transportation make up nearly 37% of the ETF’s holdings. [Shipping Looks for a Rally]
The rub with SEA is that the ETF currently does not hold shares of some of the most downtrodden shipping names, such as Kirby (NYSE: KEX) and Frontline (NYSE: FRO). However, the ETF does devote 22.3% of its weight to U.S. stocks, its largest country weight by about 235 basis points over Denmark.
Guggenheim Shipping ETF
