Brazil ETFs have been sensitive to polling data, prompting some market observers to speculate EWZ and Brazilian stocks would surge if Neves pulls off the upset. Not surprisingly, others have warned that EWZ could face swift repudiation and significant downside if Rousseff wins. [Election Risk/Reward With Brazil ETFs]
There are some signs of hope for Brazil bulls. For example, Neves was left dead heading into the first round election and was able to pull ahead of Marina Silva and advance to the runoff, so he has been down tough roads before.
Second, some investors have not been spooked by this week’s slump in Brazil ETFs. No money has been pulled from BRF and BZF while investors added almost $368 million to EWZ from Monday through Wednesday, indicating some institutional buyers have gotten involved in the ETF.
iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF