Gold prices are tumbling. That is a known fact and one highlighted by a nearly 5% tumble over the past month for the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEArca: GLD), the world’s largest physically-backed gold ETF.
Not surprisingly, the declines have been even more pronounced for gold miners and the relevant ETFs. For example, the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDX), the largest gold miners ETF by assets, entered Wednesday with a one-month decline north of 11%. The Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDXJ) is off 7.6% over the same period. [More Upside for Junior Miners ETF]
If there is good news for miners and the aforementioned ETFs, it is this: The widely followed Gold Bugs Index is holding long-term support and that could give way to a big rally.
“The Gold Bugs index remains above support that dates back 10-years. Over the past year and a half, the index has created a pennant pattern, a series of lower highs and high lows, teasing both the bulls and bears. As you can see, this pattern will be coming to an end soon,” said Chris Kimble of Kimble Charting Solutions.
To be sure, the recent technical action in GDX and GDXJ has been reflective of weakness in gold futures and has not been positive. Earlier this month, GDX slipped below its 200-day moving average and would need to rally more than 8% to reclaim its 50-day line.
Making the declines for the miners all the more ominous is that September is usually kind to gold as the yellow has posted an average September gain of 3% over the past 20 years. Barring a rally of epic proportions in what is left of this month, September 2014 will go down as one of the worst Septembers for gold in recent memory. [September Could be Good to Gold ETFs]
“After years of disappointment, bullish miner investors should be treated to some fun upside-action if the pattern breaks out to the upside. The best plan for a pennant most often is to set back and watch for the breakout and then follow it. This pattern would appear investors won’t have to wait long for the outcome,” adds Kimble.
Some investors are not waiting around for bullion to firm as highlighted by the nearly $424 million in outflows from GLD this month. However, just $78 million has been pulled from GDX while GDXJ has added $45.1 million in new assets.
Gold Bugs Index
Chart Courtesy: Kimble Charting Solutions
Tom Lydon’s clients own shares of GLD.