The Brent crude oil exchange traded fund faces fundamental headwinds as the International Energy Agency expects weak oil demand growth ahead coupled with less volatile supply outlook in Russia and Libya.
The United States Brent Oil Fund (NYSEArca: BNO) was down 1.3% Tuesday. The ETF has fallen off 10.4% since its June 19 high and has declined 5.3% year-to-date. [Commodity ETFs in Rough Patch as World Bank Turns Bearish]
Brent crude oil futures were also down 1.3%, trading around $103.3 per barrel.
On the demand side, the IEA projects global oil demand growth will fall to its lowest since the last quarter of 2012, reports Grant Smith for Bloomberg.
The agency cut its demand growth estimates this year and the next after annual expansion in fuel consumption dipped to 700,000 barrels per day in the second quarter, following a weaker global economic outlook by the International Monetary Fund.
Meanwhile, on the supply side, the global market is swimming in oil, with a reported glut in the Atlantic basin.
“The market appears confident that OPEC can deliver the production increase needed from it to meet rising demand expected in the second half of the year,” the agency said.
Libya is also beginning to reopen shipping for its first oil cargo since rebels closed the ports a year ago, according to a separate Bloomberg article.
“The Atlantic market is currently so well supplied that incremental Libyan barrels are reportedly having a hard time finding buyers,” the IEA said in its monthly report. “Many in the market seem more focused today on potential short-term downward price pressures from a further increase in Libyan production” than on “upward price pressures as might result from an escalation of fighting.”
Moreover, the IEA argues that U.S. and Eurozone sanctions on Russia’s oil sector will not have a major effect on production, reports Anjli Raval for Financial Times. The sanctions only affect new exports and investments by EU-based companies in deep water, artic and non-conventional, or shale, exploration and development.
“Neither set of sanctions will have any tangible near term impact on supplies,” the agency added. “Even for the medium term, their impact appears questionable.”
United States Brent Oil Fund
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Max Chen contributed to this article.