After rising due to geopolitical tensions and expectations U.S. interest rates will remain low, gold exchange traded funds may not have many other supports left to keep the rally going.
The SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEArca: GLD), iShares Gold Trust (NYSEArca: IAU) and ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Shares (NYSEArca: SGOL) have increased 1.9% over the past month and have gained 9.2% so far this year.
COMEX gold futures are hovering around $1,320 per ounce.
Investors are losing interest in bullion trades, with physical gold assets in exchange traded products falling to the lowest since 2009, as the rally in the equity markets draws more people into riskier assets, Bloomberg reports.
Some argue that the rise in gold prices is only temporary due to short-term political risk in Iraq and Ukraine, along with the Fed’s recent announcement that interest rates will remain low. [Gold ETFs Heading For Second Weekly Gain on Iraq Safety Bets]
“The surge in gold can’t sustain itself,” Donald Selkin, as chief market strategist at National Securities Corp., said in the article. “It was a temporary spike because of a confluence of events: Iraq and Yellen. People will be looking at other areas for excitement. Holdings are down, so people are leaving gold in search of something better.”
For instance, daily London trading volumes averaged 18.3 million ounces in the first four months of the year, or 16% lower year-over-year and the least for the period since 2010. Meanwhile, average daily volumes on Comex futures were 24% lower this year compared to 2013.
According to median analyst estimates, gold prices will average $1,225 in the fourth quarter and $1,270 in the first three months of 2015.
“You’ve had a bit of safe-haven demand and a bit of inflation-hedge demand,” Georgette Boele, a precious-metals analyst at ABN Amro Group NV, said in the article. “The view doesn’t change on gold, because this is temporary. The other drivers have not changed.”
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Max Chen contributed to this article.
Full disclosure: Tom Lydon’s clients own shares of GLD.