May is officially here and with that comes the usual “sell in May and go away” chatter. There is something to readjusting equity portfolios for the May through October time frame.
“On a seasonal basis, the six-month stretch from May to October is historically a weak period for the S&P 500 Index, dating back to 1990,” said S&P Capital IQ in a new research note.
That does not mean all sectors will sport scarlet letters over the next six months. In fact, a surprising pair of recently beaten down industry ETFs could be worth evaluating right now. Those ETFs are the First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund (NYSEArca: FDN) and the PowerShares NASDAQ Internet Portfolio (NasdaqGM: PNQI).
Buying ETFs such as FDN and PNQI during a seasonally weak period for stocks may seem counterintuitive, especially after the ETFs were two of the worst performers in April. FDN and PNQI each lost 9.2% last month. [April’s Worst ETFs]
However, it must noted that a period of seasonal strength for the Internet sector starts in mid-April. FDN and PNQI are already reflecting that, sort of. When factoring in Thursday’s gains of about 1.7% each, FDN and PNQI are modestly higher since April 15. [Favorable Seasonal Trends Beckon for Tech ETFs]
“Starting in Mid-April, historically the Internet sector has done well. Since 2005 the Internet sector has only seen two negative years for its seasonal strong period,” according to technical analyst Andrew Thrasher.
Thrasher notes volume in FDN has recently been intense, possibly a bearish sign, but not necessarily.